Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Oakland Athletics 7-3 at Rogers Centre on June 24, 2023, in a game that was never seriously in doubt. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Toronto an 80% win probability, and that figure only climbed as the Blue Jays built their lead across the early innings, ultimately reaching 100% by the final out. Toronto scored in five of nine frames, with two-run bursts in the first, third, and sixth innings doing the bulk of the damage against an Oakland pitching staff that could not contain a Blue Jays lineup hitting its spots.

The two most decisive plays of the night came off Oakland arms and were measured clearly by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability tracking. Danny Jansen's home run in the bottom of the third off Hogan Harris shifted win probability by plus-15.9 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game, extending a lead that Oakland had no sustained answer for. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed with a home run of his own in the bottom of the sixth off Austin Pruitt, adding another plus-12.6 percentage-point swing that effectively closed the door on any Athletic comeback scenario. Guerrero had been active throughout, drawing a hit by pitch off Harris in the second inning that moved the needle plus-6.3 points on its own.

Guerrero finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined plus-19.9% WPA and plus-2.9 RE24 across his contributions. Jansen ranked second among batters at plus-13.5% WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Tyler Wade's sixth-inning single off José Berríos contributed plus-6.3 percentage points during a frame that proved pivotal. On the mound, Tim Mayza led Toronto's relievers with plus-2.9% WPA, with Nate Pearson and Jordan Romano each adding plus-1.9% WPA as the bullpen closed out a comfortable final margin. Oakland collected eight hits but scored in only three innings and committed no errors in a loss that was largely controlled from the start.