Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins defeated the Detroit Tigers 4-1 at Comerica Park on June 23, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win falling from 47% before the first pitch to 0% by game's end. Minnesota did its damage early, scoring all three of its first runs in the second inning on a Max Kepler home run off Joey Wentz that shifted win probability 7.9 points in the Twins' favor. The Tigers never recovered from that deficit, and a sixth-inning Minnesota run pushed the lead to three before Detroit managed its lone tally in that same frame.
The decisive sequence of the game came in the bottom of the sixth, where the two biggest win-probability swings of the night occurred in opposite directions. Matt Vierling's single off Brock Stewart nudged Detroit's outlook upward by 10.5 points, offering a brief window of hope, but Miguel Cabrera immediately erased it by grounding into a double play off the same pitcher, a swing of negative 17.2 points that effectively closed the door. Cabrera had also struck out against Kenta Maeda in the second inning for a 7.0-point negative swing, and Javier Báez grounded into a double play in the eighth off Griffin Jax for another 6.0-point hit to Detroit's chances.
On the pitching side, Kenta Maeda led all performers with a 25.7-point win-probability contribution, anchoring a Minnesota staff that also got 9.0 points from Brock Stewart and 5.2 from Griffin Jax. Among hitters, Kepler led the Twins with a 9.7 WPA and a 2.2 RE24, while Vierling paced Detroit at 9.6 WPA despite the loss. Andy Ibáñez added 7.6 WPA for Minnesota rounding out the Twins' key contributors in a well-controlled road victory.