Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates pulled off a dramatic comeback at loanDepot park on June 23, 2023, defeating the Miami Marlins 3-1 on the strength of a three-run ninth inning after being blanked through the first eight frames. Miami had carried a 1-0 lead into the final inning, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Marlins as 63% favorites before first pitch, a number that held firm until the ninth completely unraveled for reliever A.J. Puk. Pittsburgh scored all three of its runs against Puk in that frame, erasing what had been a well-executed Marlins pitching performance and finishing with identical 7-hit totals on each side.
The decisive sequence in the top of the ninth was built on two critical singles. Carlos Santana delivered the biggest blow of the game, his single off Puk swinging win probability by plus 34.9 percent in Pittsburgh's favor and representing the turning point of the entire contest. Joshua Palacios added a single of his own for a plus 10.6 percent swing, helping set the table further. Connor Joe then grounded out in a play that, in context, added plus 25.1 percent in win probability as runs continued to cross the plate. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from that 63 percent pre-game Marlins lean all the way to zero percent by the final out, a complete reversal. David Bednar closed the bottom of the ninth by striking out Nick Fortes, a moment that added plus 14.4 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability and secured the result.
Among the standout performers, Santana led all batters with a plus 33.9 percent WPA, while Connor Joe and Henry Davis each contributed plus 0.6 RE24 alongside positive WPA figures of plus 20.6 and plus 12.7 percent respectively. On the pitching side, Jesús Luzardo paced all pitchers with a plus 26.5 percent WPA, followed closely by Luis Ortiz at plus 23.8 percent, indicating that Miami's starters and early relievers had largely done their jobs before the ninth-inning collapse. Tanner Scott added plus 18.6 percent WPA in his own right, though it was ultimately the bullpen's failure in the final frame that defined the evening for the Marlins.