Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held off the Atlanta Braves 11-10 on June 23, 2023, at Great American Ball Park in a high-scoring affair that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati victory climb from a pre-game 44% all the way to 100% by the final out. Atlanta jumped out to a five-run first inning and finished with 16 hits, but Cincinnati answered with a relentless offensive effort of its own, ultimately out-scoring the Braves across the middle frames to secure the win.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the third through fifth innings. Elly De La Cruz delivered the single biggest swing in Cincinnati's favor with a third-inning home run off AJ Smith-Shawver, a blow worth +16.9% in win probability that helped claw the Reds back into contention. Atlanta briefly threatened to seize control in the top of the fifth when Matt Olson connected for a home run off Daniel Duarte, a +19.0% swing that momentarily tilted the model back toward the Braves. Cincinnati answered immediately in the bottom half when Joey Votto launched a home run off Collin McHugh, the game's single largest win-probability shift at +23.3%, restoring the Reds' advantage at the most critical juncture of the contest. Olson did connect again in the top of the eighth off Lucas Sims for another +12.7% swing, but Atlanta's rally fell short when Orlando Arcia grounded into a double play against Alexis Díaz in the ninth, a -15.7% collapse that effectively ended any remaining hope.

De La Cruz was Cincinnati's most impactful player, finishing with a game-high +35.5% WPA and +4.4 RE24. Votto contributed +31.3% WPA alongside +1.5 RE24, while Olson led Atlanta with +28.7% WPA and +1.9 RE24 despite ending up on the losing side. On the mound, Alexis Díaz was the most valuable Cincinnati arm by the model's measure, adding +15.2% in win probability while closing out the Braves in the ninth.