Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Oakland Athletics stunned Toronto 5-4 at Rogers Centre on June 23, 2023, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had assessed as highly unlikely entering the night. The Blue Jays had opened as 79% favorites according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and that confidence appeared well-founded through three innings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. provided the biggest swing of the game in the bottom of the third, a home run off James Kaprielian that shifted win probability by 28.5 percentage points in Toronto's favor and capped a four-run frame that put the Athletics in a deep hole early. Oakland had scratched across three runs in the first and added one more in the fifth, but the Blue Jays' lead held through eight innings.
The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth, when Shea Langeliers drove a home run off Jordan Romano that swung win probability 38.4 percentage points toward Oakland, the single largest batting play of the contest. That blast, more than any other moment, erased Toronto's cushion and set up a chaotic final half-inning. Trevor May came on to close things out for the Blue Jays, but the frame unraveled in both directions. A Guerrero double generated a 25.1-point swing for Toronto, and a Daulton Varsho flyout that May induced represented a 21.4-point positive swing for the Athletics as the tension built. Matt Chapman's lineout, a 16.6-point negative swing for Oakland, ultimately ended the threat and preserved the one-run margin. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0% for a Toronto win.
On the individual ledger, Guerrero finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-35.8 with a RE24 of plus-2.8, a reflection of how his two big moments nearly carried the Blue Jays to victory despite the outcome. Langeliers posted a plus-21.8 WPA to lead Oakland's position players, while Ryan Noda contributed plus-18.2. Among pitchers, Kaprielian led Oakland's staff at plus-14.4 WPA despite surrendering the Guerrero home run, with Lucas Erceg and Erik Swanson adding plus-10.9 and plus-10.6 respectively in what proved to be a collectively efficient bullpen effort that kept Oakland within striking distance long enough for Langeliers to deliver the decisive blow.