Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-4 on June 22, 2023, at loanDepot park in a game that turned decisively in the bottom of the eighth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game already favoring Miami with a 64% home win probability, and after a relatively quiet contest through seven innings — with Miami holding a 1-0 lead after a second-inning run and Pittsburgh answering with two runs in the fourth on a Carlos Santana double off Braxton Garrett — the Marlins broke the game open with a five-run eighth that moved the model's estimate to 100%.

The bottom of the eighth was the defining sequence of the night. Garrett Cooper delivered the decisive blow, a home run off Carmen Mlodzinski that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-34.5%. Bryan De La Cruz followed with a single off Mlodzinski that added another 19.7% in win probability, extending the margin to a point from which Pittsburgh had no path back. The Pirates had briefly threatened to take control in the top of the eighth, when Henry Davis launched a home run off Andrew Nardi for a plus-14.9% swing, followed by a Ke'Bryan Hayes home run worth plus-11.4%, pulling Pittsburgh within one run. But Cooper's blast rendered those rallies moot.

From a performer standpoint, Cooper led all batters with a plus-34.6% WPA and a plus-2.2 RE24, while Davis and Hayes were the standout contributors for Pittsburgh at plus-17.3% and plus-13.6% WPA respectively. On the mound, Mitch Keller paced all pitchers with a plus-36.4% WPA despite the Pirates' loss, a reflection of his ability to keep Miami in check through the early innings. A.J. Puk added plus-6.3% WPA in relief for the Marlins, helping close out a win that finished with Miami collecting 10 hits against Pittsburgh's five.