Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on June 21, 2023, moving the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability from 69% to a final 100%. The Reds built an early cushion by scratching out single runs in the first and second innings, then delivered the decisive blow in the fifth, where a three-run frame off Colorado pitching swung the game decisively in Cincinnati's favor. TJ Friedl's single in the fifth was the pivotal hit of that rally, adding 15.8% in win probability, while Will Benson's walk extended the inning for a 14.1% swing. Jonathan India's strikeout double play in that same frame briefly stemmed the damage, costing the Reds 12.3% in win probability, but Cincinnati ultimately walked away with three runs in the inning.

Jake Fraley delivered the game's single most impactful play in the bottom of the eighth, connecting on a home run off Daniel Bard that added 27.1% in win probability and effectively sealed the outcome. Fraley finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 23.6%, paired with a RE24 of plus 1.0. Friedl also stood out, finishing at plus 18.1% WPA, while Randal Grichuk contributed plus 13.6% WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.5. Colorado finished with three runs on six hits and committed one error, while Cincinnati posted five runs on nine hits cleanly.

On the pitching side, Jake Bird was the most valuable arm of the evening, generating plus 21.9% WPA for Colorado in relief before the Reds ultimately pulled away. Ian Gibaut contributed plus 10.6% WPA and Lucas Sims added plus 8.3% for Cincinnati's bullpen, which helped protect the two-run advantage Fraley's homer provided entering the ninth. Colorado's relievers Matt Carasiti and Karl Kauffmann each factored into the costly fifth-inning rally that the Reds used to take control.