Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-2 at Yankee Stadium on June 21, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 61% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. New York built its lead methodically through the middle innings, scoring twice in the third and once in the fourth before adding an insurance run in the seventh, while Seattle managed only single runs in the eighth and ninth to make the final margin closer than the game's shape suggested.

The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third, when Jake Bauers connected on a home run off Luis Castillo that shifted win probability by plus 16.2 points, the single largest swing of the night. Billy McKinney followed in the fourth with another solo shot off Castillo, adding another plus 8.5 points to New York's advantage. Anthony Volpe extended the lead with a home run off Gabe Speier in the seventh, a swing worth plus 4.1 points. Castillo was touched for both early home runs before Seattle generated its most notable offensive moment in the top of the fifth, when Jarred Kelenic singled off Jhony Brito for a plus 4.2-point swing that briefly offered a foothold, though the Mariners could not convert it into runs.

On the strength of those performances, Bauers finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 17.0 with a RE24 of plus 1.8, followed by McKinney at plus 9.0 and plus 1.0, and Volpe at plus 7.3 and plus 1.3. Brito led all pitchers with a plus 17.8 WPA, limiting Seattle's lineup through the middle innings and earning the bulk of the pitching credit in a win that the DiamondIQ model ultimately found one-sided despite the two-run final difference.