Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| CIN | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 8 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Colorado Rockies 8-6 at Great American Ball Park on June 20, 2023, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered with a 68 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent. Cincinnati built its lead in the early innings, scoring three in the second and two in the third, while Colorado managed only isolated responses and committed three errors that contributed to their 6-run, 8-hit, 3-error line against Cincinnati's clean 8-run, 11-hit, 0-error performance.
The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the second when TJ Friedl connected on a home run off Noah Davis, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-20.1 percent in Cincinnati's favor and proved to be the single most consequential play of the game. Elly De La Cruz added to the damage in the bottom of the third with another home run off Davis, pushing Cincinnati's advantage further with a plus-8.3 percent win-probability swing. Colorado mounted a three-run rally in the top of the ninth, but Alexis Diaz held the door closed, highlighted by a Jorge Alfaro strikeout that wiped 11.6 percent from Colorado's win chances, and a Mike Moustakas walk that momentarily extended the inning at plus-9.2 percent before the threat expired.
Among individual performers, Friedl led all players with a plus-20.0 percent WPA and plus-3.3 RE24, anchoring the Cincinnati offensive effort. Moustakas contributed a plus-12.2 percent WPA despite entering late, and De La Cruz added plus-9.1 percent WPA with a plus-1.6 RE24. On the pitching side, Alex Young led Cincinnati's staff with a plus-4.8 percent WPA, followed by Diaz at plus-2.4 percent and Fernando Cruz at plus-2.0 percent.