San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants edged the San Diego Padres 4-3 at Oracle Park on June 20, 2023, in a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate entered at 62% in favor of the home side and closed at 100% following a tense ninth inning. San Diego scored twice in the third to build an early lead and added another run in the fifth, but the Giants chipped away with single runs in the fourth, seventh, eighth, and ninth innings to complete the comeback. San Francisco's offense finished with 8 hits against 10 for the Padres, yet it was the Giants who strung together the more consequential sequences when the game was on the line.

The decisive swing in win probability came in the bottom of the ninth when Joc Pederson drew a walk off Josh Hader, a play that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 33.4 percentage points. That sequence followed Pederson's go-ahead home run off Nick Martinez in the eighth, a swing worth plus 21.9 points. Offsetting those Giants surges was a costly double play by Patrick Bailey off Tim Hill in the seventh, which swung probability by minus 24.9 points, and David Villar's strikeout against Hader in the ninth, a minus 17.5-point moment that briefly kept San Diego's hopes alive. Luis Matos softened that seventh-inning damage with a single worth plus 13.9 points, helping the Giants maintain their grip.

Pederson finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a plus 47.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2. Juan Soto contributed a plus 16.2% WPA with an identical RE24 of plus 1.2 for San Diego, and Casey Schmitt added plus 13.5% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 for the Giants. On the mound, Seth Lugo led all pitchers with a plus 17.5% WPA, followed by Tristan Beck at plus 16.0% and Tyler Rogers at plus 13.5%, a trio that collectively preserved San Francisco's narrow margin through the middle and late innings.