Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 at Citizens Bank Park on June 20, 2023, completing the win on the road against a Philadelphia team the DiamondIQ model had given a 41 percent chance of winning before first pitch. Atlanta's offense was largely quiet through the first five innings, but the Braves began to pull away in the sixth and seventh, ultimately holding on despite a late Philadelphia push in the ninth that fell short.
The decisive stretch came in the sixth and seventh innings. Austin Riley delivered the game's second-most impactful offensive moment in the top of the sixth, connecting on a home run off Ranger Suarez that shifted win probability 13.8 percent in Atlanta's favor. The Braves built further on that advantage in the top of the seventh, where Eddie Rosario doubled off Jeff Hoffman for a 14.0 percent swing — the single biggest win-probability play of the game — and Ronald Acuña Jr. followed with a single off Hoffman that added another 11.1 percent. Philadelphia's most consequential offensive moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Nick Castellanos singled off Spencer Strider to produce a 12.3 percent swing, though the Phillies were unable to sustain that momentum. Kyle Schwarber's strikeout to end the ninth inning, with Raisel Iglesias on the mound, closed out the game and represented a 12.0 percent final swing preserving the Atlanta victory.
Among individual performers, Eddie Rosario led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-14.8 and a RE24 of plus-1.2, making him the most impactful offensive contributor of the night. On the pitching side, Ranger Suarez posted the top WPA among pitchers at plus-20.0, a figure reflecting the sustained effectiveness he showed before the Riley home run, while Spencer Strider contributed plus-11.0 WPA and A.J. Minter added plus-8.8 in relief. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for Philadelphia, reflecting how thoroughly Atlanta controlled the game's late innings despite the Phillies holding a slight edge in total hits, 11 to 10.