MLB Recap · June 19, 2023

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

KC4
Final
DET6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC000310000470
DET00001050-681

The Story

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Kansas City Royals 6-4 on June 19, 2023, at Comerica Park, rallying from a three-run deficit with a decisive five-run seventh inning to claim the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Detroit with a 72% home win probability, and that estimate climbed to 100% by the final out.

Kansas City appeared to seize control in the top of the fourth, when Maikel Garcia launched a home run off Reese Olson that shifted win probability by 19.6 percentage points, followed shortly by a Bobby Witt Jr. home run off the same pitcher for an additional 11.3-point swing. Those two blasts staked the Royals to a 3-0 lead that held through the sixth inning. The Tigers answered with a single run in the bottom of the fifth, but the game's true turning point came in the bottom of the seventh, when Detroit erupted for five runs against Taylor Clarke and Jordan Lyles. Kerry Carpenter's home run off Clarke was the single most impactful play of the game, adding 43.9 percentage points of win probability. Jonathan Schoop's double off Lyles contributed another 15.6-point swing, and a Jake Rogers single off Clarke added 12.9 points as Detroit methodically dismantled the Royals' lead.

Kerry Carpenter finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-38.6% with a RE24 of plus-2.3, his seventh-inning home run serving as the decisive blow. Bobby Witt Jr. led all Royals hitters with a plus-22.9% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Maikel Garcia added plus-18.8% WPA despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Tyler Alexander paced Detroit's pitching staff with a plus-10.2% WPA contribution, followed by Jordan Lyles at plus-8.1% and Alex Lange at plus-6.3% as the Tigers' bullpen ultimately secured the victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalDET win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 71.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Kerry Carpenter Home Run
Bot 7th · off Taylor Clarke
+43.9%
Maikel Garcia Home Run
Top 4th · off Reese Olson
+19.6%
Jonathan Schoop Double
Bot 7th · off Jordan Lyles
+15.6%
Jake Rogers Single
Bot 7th · off Taylor Clarke
+12.9%
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
Top 4th · off Reese Olson
+11.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Kerry Carpenter+38.6%+2.3 RE24
Bobby Witt Jr.+22.9%+2.0 RE24
Maikel Garcia+18.8%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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