Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held off the Colorado Rockies 5-4 on June 19, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 67% pre-game home win probability to a virtual certainty by the final out. The Reds built their lead incrementally through the early innings before both teams traded runs in the sixth, the inning that ultimately defined the game's outcome. Colorado struck first in the sixth on Jorge Alfaro's double off Buck Farmer, a swing that shifted win probability by +31.5% in the Rockies' favor and represented the single most impactful play of the contest. Cincinnati answered in the bottom half, with Joey Votto delivering a single off Jake Bird that pushed the DiamondIQ model +16.1% toward the Reds and helped Cincinnati retake control heading into the late innings.

Colorado mounted a final threat in the ninth against Alexis Díaz, with Jurickson Profar's single generating a +20.1% win-probability swing, but the rally was ultimately strangled by the Reds' closer. Ryan McMahon's strikeout cost the Rockies 20.4 percentage points of win probability, and Elias Díaz's groundout removed another 12.7%, effectively sealing the outcome. Alexis Díaz finished as the top-performing pitcher by WPA at +15.2%, followed by Lucas Sims at +10.8% and Fernando Cruz at +8.5%, a collective effort from the bullpen that protected a one-run lead through the final three innings.

Jorge Alfaro was the standout individual performer, finishing with a WPA of +43.4% and an RE24 of +3.1, the best marks of any batter on either side. Joey Votto contributed +29.3% WPA and +2.6 RE24, while Mike Moustakas added +23.2% WPA and +1.4 RE24 to round out Cincinnati's most productive offensive contributors. Colorado's 10 hits to Cincinnati's 8 told a story of stranded opportunity, as the Rockies generated chances but could not convert enough against a Reds bullpen that tightened when it mattered most.