Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox handed the Minnesota Twins a 9-3 defeat at Target Field on June 19, 2023, a game that opened with a clean pitching duel through the first two innings before Boston steadily pulled away. The DiamondIQ model entered the evening with the Twins holding a 51 percent home win probability, but that edge eroded quickly as the Red Sox offense began connecting against Minnesota's staff. Boston struck first in the third, extended to a two-run advantage through the fourth, and never trailed, with the model's estimate of a Twins victory falling to zero percent by the final out.
The decisive turning point came in a fifth inning that swung dramatically in both directions. Christian Vázquez launched a home run off James Paxton that shifted win probability by plus 31.2 percent in Boston's favor, effectively neutralizing Minnesota's three-run response in the bottom half of the frame. The Red Sox then buried the Twins in the sixth, when Alex Verdugo drove a triple off Jovani Morán that added another plus 29.8 percent swing, the single largest batting-team contribution of the game. Connor Wong followed with a double off Pablo López worth plus 10.9 percent, and Triston Casas added a home run off José De León in the seventh for an additional plus 10.3 percent. Jarren Duran's double off Pablo López in the fourth had earlier registered plus 17.9 percent, building the foundation for Boston's dominant second half.
By the final numbers, Verdugo led all players with plus 30.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.1, while Duran posted the game's top RE24 at plus 3.2 alongside plus 26.5 percent WPA. Vázquez contributed plus 27.0 percent WPA and plus 2.2 RE24, with his fifth-inning blast proving the decisive momentum shift the model identified. Boston finished with ten hits and no errors against Minnesota's seven hits and one error, and Red Sox pitchers Josh Winckowski, Justin Garza, and Griffin Jax each finished with flat or negligible WPA figures, reflecting a controlled if unspectacular collective outing from the bullpen.