San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants defeated the San Diego Padres 7-4 on June 19, 2023, at Oracle Park, rallying from a deficit in the final two innings to claim a win that the DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately placed at 100% in San Francisco's favor by game's end, after opening with a 61% pre-game home win probability. San Diego held a 4-2 advantage entering the bottom of the ninth, but the Giants clawed back with two runs in that frame to force extra innings, then scored three more in the tenth to put the game away. The Padres finished with 10 hits against just 6 for San Francisco, yet the Giants made theirs count at the moments that mattered most.
The two most decisive sequences of the game unfolded in the final two innings. In the bottom of the ninth, Luis Matos recorded a flyout that, despite its routine appearance in a box score, carried a +21.5% win probability swing against Padres reliever Luis García, helping set the table for Patrick Bailey's sacrifice fly off Drew Carlton, which added another +10.2% shift and tied the game. The Giants then took over in the tenth against Ray Kerr, where Blake Sabol's sacrifice bunt generated a +13.0% win probability swing before Mike Yastrzemski delivered the knockout blow, a home run worth +15.4% in win probability that effectively sealed the outcome. Ha-Seong Kim's single off Jakob Junis in the top of the fourth had been the game's most meaningful Padres offensive moment at +11.0%, but San Francisco's bullpen ultimately neutralized that early damage.
Mike Yastrzemski led all players with a +27.4% WPA and +3.0 RE24, his home run serving as the single most impactful offensive contribution of the night. Blake Sabol followed at +20.8% WPA, and Luis Matos contributed +17.8% despite his play being recorded as an out. On the mound, Tim Hill was the most valuable arm by WPA at +22.1%, with Michael Wacha close behind at +20.0% and Keaton Winn adding +6.8%. The DiamondIQ model favors performances built on high-leverage execution, and the Giants delivered exactly that when the margin was thinnest.