New York Mets at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
The Story
The New York Mets routed the Houston Astros 11-1 at Minute Maid Park on June 19, 2023, a result that was largely decided in a punishing third inning that erased the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 60 percent home win probability and drove it to zero by the final out. The Mets finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while Houston managed just five hits and was charged with two errors across nine innings.
The third inning was the defining sequence of the game, with Hunter Brown absorbing the full damage from the Mets' offense. Francisco Lindor delivered the pivotal blow, a home run that swung win probability 18.4 percent in the Mets' favor and stood as the single most impactful offensive play of the contest. Daniel Vogelbach followed with another home run, adding 10.5 percent to New York's win probability, and Starling Marte extended the damage further with a single worth 9.6 percent. Brett Baty added a single of his own for an additional 3.4 percent swing, with a Brandon Nimmo lineout representing the lone interruption to the rally at negative 4.1 percent. The Mets tacked on another five runs in the ninth to close out the scoring at 11-1.
Lindor finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 19.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 4.0, while Vogelbach and Marte followed at plus 9.8 and plus 9.2 percent respectively. On the mound, Max Scherzer was the game's most valuable performer overall, posting a WPA of plus 19.8 percent as he kept Houston's lineup in check throughout his outing. The DiamondIQ model strongly favored the Mets as the decisive plays unfolded, and the final margin confirmed there was little suspense after the third.