Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Milwaukee Brewers a lopsided 9-1 defeat on June 19, 2023, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win falling from a pre-game 45% all the way to 0% by the final out. Arizona struck early and emphatically, plating six runs in the first inning alone and never allowing the Brewers a realistic path back into the game. Milwaukee finished with just three hits and an error, while the Diamondbacks compiled 11 hits with a clean defensive performance.

The game's most consequential moments came in those opening frames, with Milwaukee's own at-bats doing significant damage to its win probability. Willy Adames' flyout to end the first inning cost the Brewers 9.6 percentage points of win probability, and Raimel Tapia's strikeout in the second inning subtracted another 10.2 points, each out arriving with runners on base and meaningful leverage. On Arizona's side, Jake McCarthy's groundout in the first added 8.9 percentage points to the Diamondbacks' chances, and Corbin Carroll's groundout in the second contributed another 9.2 points, reflecting how efficiently Arizona converted early pressure into a commanding cushion. The only bright spot for Milwaukee was Christian Yelich's triple in the third, which added 4.5 percentage points and accounted for the Brewers' lone run.

Merrill Kelly was the clear individual standout, posting a remarkable plus-24.3% WPA from the mound to lead all players in win-probability contribution. He held Milwaukee to that single run across a game that was never in doubt after the first inning. Among position players, McCarthy led Arizona's batters at plus-9.6% WPA with a plus-0.4 RE24, Carroll followed at plus-8.6% WPA and plus-0.6 RE24, and Yelich paced Milwaukee's hitters at plus-4.2% WPA and plus-0.8 RE24 despite the losing effort. Relievers Joe Mantiply and Miguel Castro each finished at plus-0.0% WPA, mopping up in a game long since decided.