Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs handed the Pittsburgh Pirates a decisive 8-0 defeat at PNC Park on June 19, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model reflected starkly — Pittsburgh entered with a 55% win probability as the home side and finished at 0%. The Cubs did their damage in bursts, plating three runs in the second inning, two in the seventh, and three more in the eighth, while holding the Pirates scoreless across all nine frames on just five hits.
The second inning proved to be the turning point. Mike Tauchman's single off Osvaldo Bido generated the game's largest positive swing for Chicago, adding 7.7% to the Cubs' win probability, and Seiya Suzuki's subsequent groundout contributed an additional 6.8% — a notable sequence in which even an out moved the needle favorably as runs crossed. On the Pittsburgh side, the DiamondIQ model's biggest negative swings came from missed opportunities against Drew Smyly: Carlos Santana's pop out in the fifth cost the Pirates 9.5% win probability, Rodolfo Castro's strikeout in the second cost 9.0%, and Connor Joe's lineout in the third shed another 8.1%. Each sequence reflected Pittsburgh's inability to generate traffic against Smyly when it mattered most.
Smyly was the standout performer of the game by a wide margin, his outing generating +29.7% win probability added for Chicago — the highest figure of any player on either side. Tauchman led all position players at +11.5% WPA with a +3.0 RE24, underscoring his direct run-creation impact. Michael Fulmer and Julian Merryweather completed a clean effort out of the Cubs bullpen, adding +6.0% and +1.7% respectively.