MLB Recap · June 18, 2023

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

NYY1
Final
BOS4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY100000000151
BOS01012000-480

The Story

The Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees 4-1 at Fenway Park on June 18, 2023, in a game that began in relative balance — the DiamondIQ model opened with a 51 percent home win probability — but tilted decisively toward Boston through the middle innings and never returned to uncertainty, finishing at 100 percent in favor of the Red Sox.

The pivotal stretch came in the fourth and fifth innings, both against Yankees starter Luis Severino. In the bottom of the fourth, a catcher interference call on Reese McGuire shifted win probability by plus 10.6 percent, and a Triston Casas walk added another plus 8.5 percent, though a pop out by Enrique Hernández pulled 7.9 percent back toward New York. Casas then delivered the single most consequential moment of the game in the fifth inning, when his double off Severino moved the win probability needle by plus 16.6 percent, effectively sealing the Yankees' fate. Casas finished as the game's top offensive performer, accumulating plus 22.5 percent in WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.0, while McGuire contributed plus 10.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3.

On the pitching side, Brayan Bello was the defining figure, posting plus 26.5 percent WPA to lead all pitchers in the game. Josh Winckowski added plus 4.5 percent and Kenley Jansen contributed plus 2.4 percent as Boston's bullpen preserved a lead the Red Sox built almost entirely against Severino. New York's lone run came in the first inning, and the Yankees managed just five hits and committed one error on the night against a Boston staff that allowed nothing to develop after that early deficit was erased.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalBOS win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 51.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Triston Casas Double
Bot 5th · off Luis Severino
+16.6%
Reese McGuire Catcher Interference
Bot 4th · off Luis Severino
+10.6%
Triston Casas Walk
Bot 4th · off Luis Severino
+8.5%
Enrique Hernández Pop Out
Bot 4th · off Luis Severino
-7.9%
Oswaldo Cabrera Fielders Choice
Top 7th · off Brayan Bello
+7.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Triston Casas+22.5%+2.0 RE24
Reese McGuire+10.5%+1.3 RE24
Alex Verdugo+6.1%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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