MLB Recap · June 18, 2023

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

CWS1
Final
SEA5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS000001000160
SEA00200003-550

The Story

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-1 at T-Mobile Park on June 18, 2023, a result that aligned with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 61 percent pre-game home win probability, which climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Seattle's offense did its damage in two concentrated bursts, scoring twice in the third and adding three more in the eighth to pull away from a White Sox side that managed just one run across nine innings.

The decisive moments came on the strength of two extra-base hits. In the bottom of the third, Julio Rodríguez doubled off Lance Lynn to swing win probability 17.7 percent in Seattle's favor, opening the scoring and establishing early control. The Mariners then put the game away in the eighth when Jarred Kelenic tripled off Reynaldo López, a blow that shifted win probability another 19.3 percent toward Seattle and capped a three-run frame. Chicago's most meaningful threat came in the sixth inning, when Andrew Benintendi singled and Elvis Andrus doubled off Bryce Miller to account for the White Sox's lone run, but Jake Burger grounded out in the eighth against Justin Topa, a play that cost Chicago 5.2 percent in win probability and effectively ended any remaining hope.

Rodríguez finished as the top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a WPA of plus-17.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Kelenic contributed plus-14.7 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.8 RE24. On the mound, Bryce Miller led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-19.5 percent, absorbing the sixth-inning Chicago rally but ultimately limiting the damage enough to earn the win, with Topa adding plus-10.8 percent in relief.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalSEA win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 61.4% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jarred Kelenic Triple
Bot 8th · off Reynaldo López
+19.3%
Julio Rodríguez Double
Bot 3rd · off Lance Lynn
+17.7%
Top 6th · off Bryce Miller
+9.7%
Elvis Andrus Double
Top 6th · off Bryce Miller
+7.8%
Jake Burger Groundout
Top 8th · off Justin Topa
-5.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Julio Rodríguez+17.6%+1.5 RE24
Jarred Kelenic+14.7%+1.8 RE24
Andrew Benintendi+5.1%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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