Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2 on June 18, 2023, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 57% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. Pittsburgh broke the scoreless tie first, as Bryan Reynolds connected on a home run off Freddy Peralta in the top of the third inning, a swing that shifted win probability 16.4 points in the Pirates' favor and briefly made things uncomfortable for Milwaukee. The Brewers answered with a single run in the bottom of the fifth, when Jesse Winker delivered a single off Luis Ortiz that carried a 10.6-point win-probability impact, but the game remained tight heading into the late innings.

The contest was ultimately decided in the bottom of the eighth, where Milwaukee broke it open with four runs against Pittsburgh's bullpen. Willy Adames worked a walk off Dauri Moreta that added 10.3 points of win probability, and William Contreras followed with a single off the same pitcher that swung the model's estimate by 22.4 points, the single largest play of the game. Luis Urías then added a single off David Bednar worth another 17.8 points, effectively closing the door on any Pittsburgh comeback. Contreras finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a combined WPA of plus 31.2 and an RE24 of plus 2.1, while Winker contributed plus 23.3 WPA and plus 1.5 RE24.

On the pitching side, Carmen Mlodzinski and Luis Ortiz each contributed plus 11.1 WPA for Pittsburgh, keeping the game within reach before the eighth-inning collapse, while Trevor Megill added plus 7.4 WPA for Milwaukee out of the bullpen. Reynolds was Pittsburgh's lone bright spot offensively, finishing with plus 13.0 WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, but the Pirates' four-hit night and a costly error left them unable to withstand the Brewers' late surge.