MLB Recap · June 18, 2023

Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

PHI3
Final
OAK2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI100010010370
OAK000000110291

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies held off the Oakland Athletics 3-2 at Oakland Coliseum on June 18, 2023, completing a victory that the DiamondIQ model had strongly anticipated, assigning Oakland just a 27% chance of winning before first pitch. Philadelphia scored in the first inning, added another run in the fifth, and pushed across what proved to be the decisive insurance run in the eighth, while Oakland managed single runs in the seventh and eighth to keep the game within reach before falling short.

The contest's most consequential sequence ran through the final two innings. Aledmys Díaz delivered the Athletics' most damaging blow in the bottom of the seventh, a home run off Matt Strahm that shifted win probability by 15.6 points in Oakland's favor and cut the Phillies' lead to one. Oakland threatened again in the eighth when Carlos Pérez singled off José Alvarado to move the needle 16.5 points toward the home side, only for Jonah Bride to strand the threat with a strikeout that swung momentum 16.5 points back toward Philadelphia. Trea Turner's single off Shintaro Fujinami in the top of the eighth, worth 12.0 win-probability points, helped Philadelphia plate the run that ultimately decided matters. The night's single biggest moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when closer Yunior Marte struck out Ryan Noda with the tying run on base, a punch-out that added 31.6 win-probability points to Philadelphia's ledger and sealed the final out.

Zack Wheeler led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-24.1, anchoring the Philadelphia effort on the mound, while Hogan Harris posted an impressive plus-18.8 WPA in relief. On the Oakland side, Noda finished as the Athletics' top batter by WPA at plus-27.8 despite his game-ending strikeout, a reflection of how dangerous he appeared in that final at-bat before Marte prevailed. Philadelphia finished with seven hits and committed no errors against Oakland's nine hits and one error, a cleaner defensive performance that complemented the pitching staff's ability to limit damage at the moments that mattered most.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalOAK win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 26.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ryan Noda Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Yunior Marte
+31.6%
Jonah Bride Strikeout
Bot 8th · off José Alvarado
-16.5%
Carlos Pérez Single
Bot 8th · off José Alvarado
+16.5%
Aledmys Díaz Home Run
Bot 7th · off Matt Strahm
+15.6%
Trea Turner Single
Top 8th · off Shintaro Fujinami
+12.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Ryan Noda+27.8%-0.6 RE24
Carlos Pérez+16.5%+0.8 RE24
Aledmys Díaz+9.3%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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