St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| NYM | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals rallied past the New York Mets 8-7 at Citi Field on June 18, 2023, in a game that swung dramatically in the final innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 60 percent pre-game home win probability for the Mets, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as St. Louis erased a deficit with a decisive ninth-inning punch.
The single most consequential moment of the game was Nolan Arenado's go-ahead home run off Adam Ottavino in the top of the ninth, a swing that shifted win probability by 38.4 percentage points and proved to be the margin of victory. The Mets had their own high-leverage highlight in the bottom of the fifth, when Tommy Pham connected for a home run off Chris Stratton that moved the needle 23.0 percentage points in New York's favor. Jordan Walker contributed a home run off John Curtiss in the top of the fifth worth 11.8 percentage points, though he was also responsible for a costly double play in the top of the seventh against Brooks Raley that cost the Cardinals 12.2 percentage points. The Mets' final threat in the bottom of the ninth ended when Starling Marte grounded into a double play off Jordan Hicks, a sequence that added 16.3 points of win probability back to St. Louis.
By WPA, Arenado led all batters at plus-22.5 percent, with Pham close behind at plus-16.8 and Mark Canha contributing plus-12.8 with matching RE24 figures of plus-1.2 for both Pham and Canha. On the mound, Drew VerHagen and Andre Pallante each posted plus-15.5 percent WPA, with David Robertson adding plus-10.6. The Cardinals finished with no errors against two for the Mets, a factor that contributed to the final margin in what was an unsettled, high-scoring contest throughout.