Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies edged the Oakland Athletics 3-2 in twelve innings on June 17, 2023, at Oakland Coliseum, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had pegged as unlikely from the start, assigning the home side just a 28 percent chance of winning before first pitch. Oakland scored first, plating a run in the bottom of the fifth, and Philadelphia answered with one in the top of the sixth to force extras. The game remained deadlocked through the tenth before a pivotal eleventh inning shaped the contest's outcome.

The most consequential sequence began in the bottom of the eleventh, when Tony Kemp's sacrifice bunt off Andrew Vasquez shifted Oakland's win probability upward by 23.7 percent, setting the stage for Carlos Pérez, whose two-out double off Vasquez represented the single biggest swing of the night at plus 26.9 percent, tying the game and vaulting Pérez to a game-high 47.3 percent cumulative WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.7. Philadelphia reclaimed the lead in the top of the twelfth, and Oakland's final rally fell short in painful fashion: Shea Langeliers reached via sacrifice bunt for plus 23.7 percent and JJ Bleday's groundout moved the needle another plus 19.0 percent, but Esteury Ruiz's strikeout to end the game against Jeff Hoffman collapsed Oakland's win probability by 25.9 percent and sealed the defeat.

Among the pitching staff, James Kaprielian led Oakland's contributors with plus 27.2 percent WPA, followed by Sam Long at plus 13.5 percent and Gregory Soto at plus 11.2 percent, though their collective efforts ultimately could not overcome the bullpen's final-inning unraveling. Bryce Harper was Philadelphia's most impactful offensive presence by WPA at plus 28.7 percent despite a RE24 of minus 0.2, while Kemp's plus 31.2 percent WPA underscored how close Oakland came to extending the game before the Phillies closed it out.