Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-4 on June 16, 2023, at American Family Field, holding on after a late Pittsburgh rally fell short in the ninth inning. The Brewers built their lead early, scoring three runs in the first inning and adding another in the fourth and one more in the sixth, while Pittsburgh managed single runs in the second, sixth, and seventh before mounting a more serious threat in the final frame. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Milwaukee as a 55 percent favorite before the game, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent.

The ninth inning was the most volatile stretch of the contest by win-probability impact. Devin Williams was on the mound for Milwaukee when Joshua Palacios laced a double that swung win probability 25.9 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, briefly injecting life into the Pirates' chances. However, Williams responded by striking out Ke'Bryan Hayes, a play that shifted win probability 25.0 percent back toward Milwaukee, and then struck out Jason Delay, a swing of 20.7 percent that effectively sealed the game. The seventh inning also carried meaningful leverage, as Jack Suwinski was hit by a pitch off Elvis Peguero for a 14.2 percent swing in Pittsburgh's direction, though Joshua Palacios subsequently grounded into a forceout that cost the Pirates 9.1 percent in win probability and blunted the threat.

Among individual performers, Suwinski led all position players with a WPA of plus-18.2 and an RE24 of plus-0.7, while Palacios finished at plus-14.6 despite his costly forceout. Joey Wiemer contributed a plus-9.3 WPA on Milwaukee's side. On the pitching staff, Julio Teheran led with a plus-15.3 WPA, edging Williams at plus-15.2, with Joel Payamps adding plus-10.8. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Milwaukee pitching staff's collective performance, particularly in the ninth, as the decisive factor in preserving the one-run victory.