Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs handed the Baltimore Orioles a 10-3 defeat at Wrigley Field on June 16, 2023, a result that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs victory climb from 38 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned sharply in the third inning, when Chicago sent three consecutive home runs off Orioles starter Cole Irvin. Miguel Amaya connected for a plus-10.6 percent win-probability swing, Dansby Swanson followed with a plus-10.2 percent blast, and Christopher Morel added a plus-8.6 percent shot, giving the Cubs a 3-0 lead and putting Irvin and Baltimore in an early hole from which they never recovered. The Orioles managed a brief response in the fourth and fifth innings, with Jorge Mateo delivering a double off Kyle Hendricks in the top of the fifth that represented a plus-12.9 percent swing — the single largest win-probability play of the afternoon — but it amounted to only a run and proved insufficient to reverse the game's trajectory.

Chicago's offense put the contest away with a six-run sixth inning, capped by Ian Happ's run-scoring single off Cionel Pérez that registered a plus-12.2 percent win-probability swing. The final line showed the Cubs collecting 12 hits against Baltimore's nine, with neither side committing an error. Christopher Morel led all position players with a plus-16.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Happ finished at plus-12.2 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24. Mateo was Chicago's primary antagonist on the mound end, finishing at plus-11.2 percent WPA despite pitching for the losing side. On the pitching ledger, Kyle Hendricks paced the Cubs staff with a plus-8.1 percent WPA contribution, followed by Michael Fulmer at plus-7.3 percent, as Chicago's pitchers collectively kept Baltimore's lineup in check through nine innings.