St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handled the St. Louis Cardinals 6-1 at Citi Field on June 16, 2023, a result that validated the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 63 percent home win probability and ultimately pushed that figure to 100 percent by the final out. The Mets struck early and decisively, scoring three runs in the first inning and adding two more in the third to build a lead the Cardinals never seriously threatened. St. Louis managed just five hits and its lone run in the fifth inning, never generating the sustained pressure needed to shift the game's trajectory.

The decisive swing in win probability came in the top of the fifth, where a sequence of Cardinals at-bats against Tylor Megill defined the contest. Tommy Edman's strikeout to lead off the inning cost St. Louis 7.3 percent in win probability, the single largest swing of the game, and Paul DeJong's subsequent strikeout shed another 4.8 percent. Jordan Walker's double added 4.6 percent for the Cardinals and Willson Contreras followed with a home run that also added 4.6 percent, but those two hits represented isolated bright spots in an otherwise suppressed Cardinals offensive effort. Walker's groundout in the second had already cost St. Louis 5.0 percent earlier in the game, underscoring how consistently Megill neutralized scoring opportunities.

Megill was the game's dominant individual performer, finishing with a model-leading 13.7 percent WPA contribution. On the offensive side, Willson Contreras led Cardinals hitters with a 5.9 percent WPA and 1.1 RE24, while New York's Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach each contributed 5.8 percent WPA for the Mets, with Pham posting the stronger run-environment impact at 1.7 RE24. Dominic Leone and Josh Walker provided clean relief work, adding 1.4 and 0.1 percent WPA respectively, as New York completed a thorough and methodical victory.