New York Yankees at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees 4-3 in ten innings on June 14, 2023, at Citi Field, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win shift from 45% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the game's end. The contest was scoreless through four innings before the Mets scratched across a run in the fifth, the Yankees answered with one in the sixth, and both clubs traded a pair in the seventh before the game settled into a tense deadlock through the eighth and ninth.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the tenth, when Brandon Nimmo laced a walk-off double off Nick Ramirez that swung win probability by plus-41.4 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. Nimmo had already been the central figure in the seventh, when a hit by pitch off Ron Marinaccio added 15.1 percentage points to the Mets' chances. Countering that swing, Billy McKinney's single off Brooks Raley in the top of the seventh provided the Yankees their most impactful offensive moment at plus-14.6 percentage points. In the ninth, Eduardo Escobar's strikeout against Albert Abreu added 14.0 percentage points to the Yankees' side, while Willie Calhoun's groundout against David Robertson moments later swung 13.9 points back toward New York.

Nimmo finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating plus-56.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.8 across his pivotal contributions. McKinney added plus-11.9% WPA and Tommy Pham contributed plus-7.4% WPA among the key bats. On the pitching side, Justin Verlander led all hurlers with plus-18.4% WPA, followed by David Robertson at plus-13.5% and Gerrit Cole at plus-12.6%, though none of their efforts were ultimately enough to prevent Nimmo's walk-off from deciding the Subway Series opener.