Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins quieted T-Mobile Park on June 14, 2023, defeating the Seattle Mariners 4-1 in a game that was never particularly close despite the score. The DiamondIQ model opened with Seattle as a slight favorite at 48% home win probability, but that number eroded steadily and closed at 0% as Miami's pitching and timely hitting dismantled the Mariners across nine innings. Miami scattered its damage across the third, sixth, and eighth innings while holding Seattle to a single run in the bottom of the ninth.
The most consequential swing of the game came in the top of the sixth when Jorge Soler connected for a home run off Luis Castillo, a play that shifted win probability by plus 12.1 percentage points in Miami's favor and pushed the Marlins ahead by two. Castillo had largely contained the Miami lineup to that point, but the Soler blast cracked the game open. Nick Fortes added an important insurance double in the eighth off Justin Topa, worth plus 8.6 points of win probability, as Miami plated two more to go up 4-0. One notable sequence that went against the Marlins was a Jonathan Davis double play in the fifth off Castillo, which cost Miami 8.1 percentage points and snuffed out a potential rally.
On the pitching side, Eury Pérez was the story, generating plus 29.8 points of win probability across his start and limiting Seattle to just one run despite Cal Raleigh drawing a double in the fifth worth plus 5.6 points. Raleigh actually led all hitters in WPA at plus 15.2 with a RE24 of plus 0.7, a reflection of how dangerous he remained in a losing effort, while Soler's plus 13.9 WPA and plus 2.0 RE24 made him Miami's most impactful offensive contributor. Dylan Floro and Andrés Muñoz closed things out cleanly, adding plus 8.8 and plus 6.8 points of win probability respectively in relief.