San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants erased a four-run deficit and eventually pulled away for an 8-5 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on June 14, 2023, in a game that extended into extra innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving the Cardinals a 60 percent win probability, and that edge appeared well-founded through two innings as Tommy Edman's second-inning home run off Anthony DeSclafani swung win probability 26.4 points in St. Louis's favor, staking the Cardinals to an early 4-2 cushion. San Francisco chipped away with a run in the seventh before setting up a decisive late sequence that flipped the game entirely.
The turning point arrived in the ninth inning, when Mike Yastrzemski launched a home run off Giovanny Gallegos that shifted win probability 36.8 points toward San Francisco, knotting or threatening the Cardinals' lead at a critical moment. That blow carried Yastrzemski to a game-high plus-43.4 percent WPA and a plus-2.4 RE24, making him the most impactful offensive player on either side. The Giants then seized full control in the tenth inning against Steven Matz, with Wilmer Flores delivering a single worth plus-18.6 percent WPA and Thairo Estrada following with a single that added another 37.4 points of win probability, the single largest swing of the night by any one plate appearance. Estrada finished with a plus-30.2 WPA and plus-1.7 RE24.
On the mound, Jordan Hicks led all pitchers with a plus-15.9 percent WPA contribution, followed by Jordan Montgomery at plus-8.7 percent and Jakob Junis at plus-6.3 percent. A ninth-inning flyout by Brendan Donovan against Tyler Rogers also registered as a notable sequence, adding 14.0 points of win probability to the Cardinals' side and suggesting San Francisco's bullpen navigated real danger before closing it out. The Giants finished with 11 hits and no errors against nine hits and no errors for St. Louis, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 40 percent pre-game Cardinals win probability to zero by the final out.