Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-2 on June 14, 2023, at Target Field, with all four of Minnesota's runs scoring in a decisive third inning that effectively ended the contest. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Twins holding a 55% win probability, and after that third inning unfolded, the model's estimate climbed sharply toward a certainty that never wavered through the final six innings.

The turning point came in the bottom of the third against Brewers starter Colin Rea, who could not escape the frame without surrendering the game's most consequential sequence. Carlos Correa delivered the biggest blow by win-probability impact, a triple that shifted the Twins' chances by plus 17.4%, followed immediately by a Trevor Larnach double worth plus 13.3% in win probability. Joey Gallo added a single in the same inning at plus 7.2%. Milwaukee briefly threatened in the top of the fourth, but Brian Anderson grounded into a double ball off Bailey Ober, a play that cost the Brewers 8.7 percentage points of win probability and extinguished any serious rally attempt. The Brewers had scored twice in the top of the second, but Christian Vázquez's strikeout against Rea in the home half, a minus 8.1% swing for Minnesota at the time, showed how the Twins' lineup was pressing before the third-inning burst.

On the individual ledger, Larnach led all position players with a WPA of plus 16.3% and a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Correa matched him at plus 1.6 RE24 and posted plus 14.2% WPA. On the pitching side, Bailey Ober led Minnesota's staff with plus 8.8% WPA, supported by Jhoan Duran at plus 8.1% and Brock Stewart at plus 7.2%, a collective effort that shut out the Brewers across the final seven innings. Milwaukee finished with six hits and an error, while Minnesota managed five hits but concentrated their damage precisely when it mattered most.