Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-3 on June 13, 2023, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego win moving from a pre-game 56 percent to a certainty by game's end. The Padres seized control immediately, scoring four runs in the bottom of the first inning and never relinquishing the lead. That opening frame set the tone for the entire contest, as Cleveland spent the remainder of the game chasing a deficit it could never fully close.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded across the first two innings on both sides. Gary Sánchez's home run off Tanner Bibee in the bottom of the first added 5.4 percent to San Diego's win probability, while Matt Carpenter's strikeout in the same inning contributed a 7.0 percent swing in the Padres' favor, underscoring how thoroughly Cleveland's starter struggled in that opening frame. Xander Bogaerts followed with a lineout in the bottom of the second that added another 6.5 percent to San Diego's probability, and a Myles Straw groundout off Joe Musgrove in the top of the second cost Cleveland 6.9 percent. The Guardians' most meaningful moment came in the top of the fifth, when Cam Gallagher delivered a double off Musgrove for a 6.9 percent swing, fueling a run that briefly tightened the game.

Individually, Xander Bogaerts led all position players with a WPA of plus 10.7 percent, pairing that figure with a RE24 of plus 0.3. Cam Gallagher finished at plus 5.1 percent WPA and led the group with a RE24 of plus 0.6, giving Cleveland its best offensive contribution on the night. On the mound, Joe Musgrove paced San Diego's staff with a WPA of plus 8.5 percent, while Steven Wilson added plus 5.0 percent and Nick Martinez contributed plus 4.5 percent in support, collectively ensuring the Padres' bullpen held the Guardians at bay through the final innings.