San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants rolled to an 11-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on June 13, 2023, handing the home side a lopsided defeat that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked in real time. St. Louis entered with a 41 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure eroded steadily and closed at zero percent as the Giants built an insurmountable advantage through the middle innings. San Francisco scored in five of nine frames, collecting 17 hits without committing an error, while the Cardinals managed just seven hits and were charged with one error across the contest.

The fifth inning proved to be the decisive turning point. Jack Flaherty absorbed the brunt of the Giants' offensive output, and Casey Schmitt's single in that frame delivered the single largest win-probability swing of the night, shifting the balance by plus 11.4 percent in San Francisco's favor. Patrick Bailey followed with a single of his own off Flaherty that added another 9.9 percent, extending what had already become a difficult situation for the Cardinals into something close to a foregone conclusion. Flaherty had also limited damage earlier, as Bailey's groundout in the third represented a minus 7.0 percent swing against the Giants. Mike Yastrzemski contributed a home run off Génesis Cabrera in the sixth inning worth plus 7.0 percent, pushing the margin further beyond reach.

Among the individual standouts, Casey Schmitt led all batters with a plus 10.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.7, while Michael Conforto posted the most run-environment value of any hitter at plus 2.1 RE24 to go with plus 8.2 percent WPA. J.D. Davis added plus 4.7 percent WPA. On the mound, Alex Cobb was the Giants' most impactful arm, contributing plus 7.4 percent WPA, with Luke Jackson adding plus 4.2 percent in support. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the fifth-inning sequence as the moment the Cardinals' path to victory effectively closed.