Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 7-5 on June 13, 2023, at Target Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at 54 percent in favor of the home side and closing at 100 percent following a decisive ninth-inning rally. Milwaukee held a 5-3 lead entering the bottom of the ninth, but Minnesota erupted for four runs against Devin Williams to complete the comeback and take the series win.

The game's most consequential sequence came in that ninth inning, where Donovan Solano's single off Williams carried a win-probability swing of plus 39.3 percent, the single largest play of the night by that measure. Carlos Correa followed with a home run off the same pitcher, adding another plus 28.4 percent to Minnesota's win probability and effectively sealing the outcome. Milwaukee had built its lead largely on the back of Christian Yelich, whose third-inning double off Pablo López generated a plus 16.5 percent swing, and whose seventh-inning home run off José De León pushed the Brewers ahead by two, registering a plus 25.0 percent impact. Joey Gallo's strikeout against Joel Payamps in the bottom of the eighth, costing Milwaukee minus 20.9 percent in win probability, proved a turning point that left the door open for Minnesota's late surge.

Yelich finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 43.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.5, though his efforts ultimately went unrewarded in the loss. Solano was the standout performer for Minnesota at plus 38.1 percent WPA, while Kyle Farmer contributed plus 19.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3 in support of the Twins' offense. On the mound, Joel Payamps led Minnesota's pitching staff with a plus 13.3 percent WPA contribution, with Elvis Peguero and Josh Winder adding plus 6.2 and plus 5.0 percent respectively as the bullpen protected the walk-off victory.