San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants held off the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at Busch Stadium on June 12, 2023, overcoming a late Cardinals rally to secure the road victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Cardinals a 43 percent home win probability, a figure that eroded steadily before reaching zero as the Giants closed things out. San Francisco built its lead with a two-run third inning and added single runs in the seventh and eighth, the latter coming on a Brandon Crawford single off Chris Stratton that proved critical, swinging win probability 15.4 percent in the Giants' favor.

The Cardinals made things interesting in the middle innings, with Paul Goldschmidt delivering the most impactful offensive moment of the game for either side — a sixth-inning home run off Logan Webb that swung win probability 22.9 percent toward St. Louis and briefly cut into the deficit. Goldschmidt finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-30.8 percent, though his ninth-inning groundout, worth plus-18.8 percent from the Cardinals' perspective, ultimately came in a losing effort. The decisive sequence came in the bottom eighth, when Dylan Carlson's flyout off Camilo Doval crushed St. Louis's chances by 29.8 percent, the single largest win-probability swing of the game. Brendan Donovan also contributed positively for the Cardinals at plus-19.3 percent WPA, while Mitch Haniger led San Francisco's position players with plus-14.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.9.

Doval closed the door in the ninth despite a Paul Goldschmidt groundout that briefly kept Cardinals hopes flickering. Paul DeJong's game-ending double play off Doval swung win probability another 27.2 percent away from St. Louis, sealing the result. Among pitchers, Matthew Liberatore led all arms with plus-6.8 percent WPA for St. Louis, followed by Steven Matz at plus-3.6 percent and Tyler Rogers at plus-3.4 percent, none of it enough to prevent San Francisco from leaving Busch Stadium with the win.