Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers rallied from a multi-run deficit to defeat the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in ten innings on June 12, 2023, at Comerica Park. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Detroit entering the game with just a 36 percent chance of winning, and that figure remained under pressure through much of the contest before swinging decisively in the final two frames.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the ninth against Raisel Iglesias, when Zack Short delivered a single that added 38.8 percent to Detroit's win probability, the single largest swing of the game. Andy Ibáñez contributed as well, with a strikeout recorded against him actually generating a +14.0 percent swing in Detroit's favor, reflecting how the leverage of that at-bat fell in the Tigers' direction. That ninth-inning push set up extra innings with Atlanta clinging to a one-run lead only to see it evaporate. In the bottom of the tenth, Jake Rogers laid down a sacrifice bunt off Joe Jiménez that added 29.5 percent to the home team's win probability, advancing the winning run into scoring position. Spencer Torkelson then singled home the decisive run, a blow worth another +16.9 percent. Atlanta's Travis d'Arnaud had grounded out to begin the top of the tenth, a play that added 16.4 percent to Detroit's chances by keeping the lead intact long enough to matter.

Among individual performers, Short finished as the top batter by WPA at +34.6 percent with a +0.8 RE24, while Ibáñez posted +33.6 percent and a +2.1 RE24 and Rogers added +33.5 percent alongside a +1.4 RE24. On the pitching side, Charlie Morton led Atlanta's staff at +18.1 percent WPA, followed by A.J. Minter at +12.2 percent and Mason Englert at +4.9 percent, though their collective effort ultimately fell short as Detroit completed a comeback the DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 100 percent probability.