Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held off the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at Busch Stadium on June 11, 2023, completing a road victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had as a near coin-flip at first pitch, with the Cardinals carrying a 48% pre-game win probability. Cincinnati scored in five different innings — single runs in the first, third, sixth, and eighth — while St. Louis answered with a pair in the second and one in the third, setting up a tense finish that came down to the final out.

The most consequential sequence of the game unfolded in the final two innings. Tyler Stephenson was the central offensive figure, generating a combined 23.4% win probability added across his two biggest plate appearances. His sixth-inning single off Adam Wainwright, worth 11.8% in WPA, extended Cincinnati's lead, and his eighth-inning fielders choice off Jordan Hicks added another 15.4%, pushing the Reds ahead 4-3 at the time. Jordan Walker's strikeout against Lucas Sims in the bottom of the eighth swung 16.5% in Cincinnati's favor, with Sims finishing as the top pitching contributor at 23.3% WPA. Ian Gibaut and Chris Stratton also provided meaningful relief support at 20.4% and 13.1% WPA respectively. Elly De La Cruz posted the strongest individual RE24 among position players at plus-1.5, reflecting his direct run-contribution impact.

Closer Alexis Díaz navigated the ninth with the Cardinals threatening, and Brendan Donovan's flyout to end the game represented the single largest win-probability swing of the contest at 31.6%, accounting for why Donovan finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-33.7% despite the out being the decisive moment — his at-bat with the tying or winning run in play was the Cardinals' clearest path to victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0% for St. Louis as Díaz recorded the final out, completing the 4-3 road win for Cincinnati.