Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins rallied past the Chicago White Sox 6-5 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 11, 2023, erasing a late deficit to hand Chicago a loss the DiamondIQ model had assigned just a 41 percent chance of occurring before first pitch. The Marlins were held scoreless through four innings before Jorge Soler broke the ice with a home run off Lucas Giolito in the fifth, a swing that shifted win probability 13.0 points in Miami's favor. The White Sox then seized control with a three-run sixth keyed by a Romy Gonzalez double off JT Chargois, a play worth 26.2 percentage points for Chicago, and added two more in the seventh on a Luis Robert Jr. home run off Huascar Brazobán that moved the home side's win probability up another 12.6 points. Miami answered with two runs in the eighth before completing the comeback in the ninth.

The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth when Bryan De La Cruz laced a double off Kendall Graveman, a single swing that swung win probability 67.4 percentage points toward the Marlins and effectively settled the contest. Chicago mounted a final push in the bottom half, but Clint Frazier's groundout off A.J. Puk ended the threat and, in doing so, added 31.6 points back toward the Marlins in win-probability terms as the game's final significant event.

De La Cruz led all players by total WPA at plus-65.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Soler contributed plus-28.0 percent WPA and a game-high plus-2.4 RE24. On the pitching side, Lucas Giolito paced White Sox starters at plus-26.7 percent WPA despite surrendering Soler's home run, and Braxton Garrett contributed plus-21.9 percent WPA in support of the Marlins' cause. Miami finished with ten hits against no errors, while Chicago committed one error across seven hits in a game the DiamondIQ model ultimately closed at zero percent for a home victory.