Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| SF | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | - | 13 | 15 | 4 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants rolled past the Chicago Cubs 13-3 at Oracle Park on June 11, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, opening with a 62 percent home win probability that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. San Francisco built its advantage steadily through the middle innings, scoring in six of nine frames and finishing with 15 hits against a Cubs staff that couldn't contain the damage.
The decisive stretch came in the third inning, when San Francisco turned a tight game into a comfortable lead. Casey Schmitt opened the rally with a double off Hayden Wesneski, a play that shifted win probability by 6.4 percent in the Giants' favor, and Joc Pederson followed with a home run off Wesneski that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate by an additional 16.4 percent, the single largest play of the game. Chicago had threatened in the top half of that inning when Yan Gomes reached on a fielder's choice that added 9.9 percent to the Cubs' win probability, but Patrick Wisdom's strikeout off Tristan Beck, costing Chicago 5.3 percent, helped extinguish that momentum. Blake Sabol added a single off Michael Fulmer in the fourth that pushed San Francisco's probability further, accounting for a 6.6 percent swing.
Pederson finished as the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-21.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-4.2 on the night. Gomes contributed a WPA of plus-10.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Sabol added plus-7.5 percent WPA. On the mound, Ryan Walker was the top-graded Giants pitcher with a WPA of plus-9.9 percent, as San Francisco's bullpen helped protect a lead that was never seriously in doubt after the third inning.