New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-1 at PNC Park on June 10, 2023, overcoming a DiamondIQ model pre-game estimate that gave the home side a 59% chance of winning. The Mets scratched across a run in the third on a Brandon Nimmo single off Johan Oviedo, a play that shifted win probability 9.1 points in New York's favor, but Pittsburgh answered with a Ji Hwan Bae fielders choice in the bottom of the fourth that swung things 11.4 points toward the Pirates. The game's decisive moment arrived in the top of the seventh when Mark Canha doubled off Dauri Moreta, a swing of plus 26.6 percentage points that effectively broke the contest open. Francisco Alvarez added insurance with a home run off Colin Holderman in the eighth, worth another 9.4 points of win probability, and by game's end the model's estimate of a Pittsburgh victory had collapsed from 59% to zero.

Canha finished as the game's top performer by WPA, finishing at plus 19.3% with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Nimmo contributed plus 13.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4 to anchor a Mets lineup that generated eight hits against three errors of their own. On the Pittsburgh side, Bryan Reynolds posted the team's best offensive WPA at plus 7.9% despite the Pirates managing only three hits on the night. The pitching story belonged to Kodai Senga, who led all pitchers with a plus 30.5% WPA, limiting Pittsburgh's most dangerous moments and rendering the Bae fielders choice the Pirates' lone run of the game. Oviedo absorbed a plus 10.6% WPA figure from the opposing side, as the Mets worked him for damage in both the third and sixth innings, with Francisco Lindor's double play in the sixth representing the one sequence that briefly stalled New York's momentum.