Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Oakland Athletics erased an 80 percent pre-game home win probability assigned by the DiamondIQ model and defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in ten innings on June 10, 2023, at American Family Field. The game was scoreless through seven frames before William Contreras gave Milwaukee a temporary lead with a home run off Richard Lovelady in the bottom of the eighth, a swing that shifted win probability 24.5 percent in the Brewers' favor. Oakland responded in the tenth, and the decisive moment came when Aledmys Díaz singled off Joel Payamps to plate the tying and ultimately go-ahead runs, a hit that swung win probability 36.5 percent toward the Athletics. Ryan Noda's groundout in that same inning contributed an additional 17.7 percent swing, while Brent Rooker's grounded-into-double-play briefly threatened to unravel the rally at -11.5 percent. Milwaukee's final threat in the bottom of the tenth ended when Willy Adames flew out to Sam Long, a play that registered a 19.0 percent win-probability swing sealing the Athletics' victory.

By the DiamondIQ model's estimates, Paul Blackburn was the game's most valuable performer regardless of position, finishing with a WPA of +45.4 percent, anchoring Oakland's pitching effort across his innings of work. On the offensive side, Díaz led all batters at +44.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of +1.4, reflecting how concentrated his damage was in the highest-leverage moment of the game. Contreras finished at +24.5 percent WPA and +1.0 RE24 for Milwaukee, his home run representing the Brewers' lone run and best opportunity to win a game they entered as heavy favorites. Devin Williams added +13.5 percent WPA in relief for Milwaukee, but Oakland's bullpen ultimately held, completing a road upset that left the DiamondIQ model's final win probability for the home side at zero.