Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 in ten innings at Rogers Centre on June 9, 2023, erasing a 59 percent pre-game home win probability the DiamondIQ model had assigned to Toronto and finishing the night at zero. The game was scoreless through four innings before Michael A. Taylor's home run off Yusei Kikuchi in the top of the fifth shifted Minnesota's chances by 21.2 percentage points. Toronto answered with a run in the bottom of the fifth and added another in the sixth to take a 2-1 lead, but the contest remained tight into the ninth inning, where George Springer's double off Jhoan Duran produced the biggest swing in Minnesota's favor to that point, a 22.0 percentage-point gain that tied the game and forced extra innings.

The decisive sequence came in the tenth, where Royce Lewis delivered a single off Adam Cimber that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 32.0 percentage points, giving Minnesota its eventual game-winning run. Alex Kirilloff then grounded out to Tim Mayza, but that play added another 23.1 points of win probability as it advanced the runner and solidified Minnesota's position. In the bottom of the tenth, Santiago Espinal's pop out off Jhoan Duran, generating 27.0 percentage points in Minnesota's favor, sealed the victory.

Royce Lewis finished as the game's most impactful player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus 43.5 percent in win probability added and a RE24 of plus 2.3. Springer contributed plus 35.4 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 2.0, while Espinal's plus 37.7 percent WPA reflected how consequential the Blue Jays' failure to convert in extras proved to be. On the pitching side, Sonny Gray led Minnesota's staff with plus 14.7 percent WPA, with Nate Pearson at plus 14.3 and Erik Swanson adding plus 13.5 in support.