Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| STL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 7 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-4 on June 9, 2023, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a near-even 51% home win probability before climbing to 100% by game's end. St. Louis built its advantage early, as Jordan Walker's second-inning home run off Ben Lively delivered the single largest positive swing of the night at +8.4% win probability. The Cardinals continued to pull away inning by inning, and a José Barrero forceout in the top of the second off Jordan Montgomery represented the Reds' sharpest negative swing of the contest at -7.9%, effectively snuffing out any early Cincinnati momentum.
Cincinnati mounted its most credible threat in the seventh and eighth innings. Will Benson drew a walk off Jordan Hicks in the top of the seventh that moved the needle +8.8%, and Stuart Fairchild followed with a double off Chris Stratton in the top of the eighth worth +7.6%, helping the Reds plate their four runs across those two frames. However, those rallies proved insufficient against a Cardinals offense that finished with 11 hits to Cincinnati's 7.
Fairchild paced all batters in win-probability contribution with a +10.7% WPA and a +2.3 RE24, while Jordan Walker and Will Benson added +8.3% and +6.9% respectively. On the mound, Jordan Montgomery was the dominant force, contributing a game-high +20.5% WPA for St. Louis, with Andre Pallante and Giovanny Gallegos adding +8.9% and +8.7% in relief to close out the Cardinals' victory.