MLB Recap · June 9, 2023

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

NYM7
Final
PIT14

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYM0110000057122
PIT02530202-14171

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates handled the New York Mets 14-7 at PNC Park on June 9, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated to some degree, having opened with a 60 percent home win probability before ultimately reaching 100 percent in Pittsburgh's favor. The Pirates built their decisive advantage early, sending the game largely out of reach through back-to-back damaging innings in the second and third. Pittsburgh scored two in the second and five in the third, while the Mets managed only single runs in each of those frames, leaving them chasing a deficit they never recovered from. New York added five runs in the ninth, but the damage was thoroughly done by that point.

Tylor Megill absorbed the brunt of Pittsburgh's offensive outburst, surrendering the three most damaging at-bats of the night by win-probability impact. Austin Hedges delivered a double in the second inning that shifted win probability by plus 12.9 percent, and the third inning compounded matters quickly. Ji Hwan Bae's single off Megill in the third represented the single largest swing of the night at plus 14.7 percent, followed by Ke'Bryan Hayes adding a single worth plus 8.4 percent and Jack Suwinski drawing a walk worth plus 5.9 percent. The lone bright moment for New York came from Francisco Lindor, whose third-inning home run off Rich Hill moved the needle plus 10.6 percent, briefly keeping the Mets within reach before Pittsburgh extinguished any remaining hope.

By WPA, Ji Hwan Bae finished as the night's most impactful offensive player at plus 17.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Ke'Bryan Hayes posted plus 12.5 percent and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 3.7. Austin Hedges rounded out Pittsburgh's top contributors at plus 11.9 percent WPA. The Pirates finished with 17 hits against 12 for New York, and Pittsburgh's pitching staff held the Mets to two runs across the first eight innings before surrendering the five-run ninth. David Bednar, Rob Zastryzny, and Tommy Hunter each finished at plus 0.0 percent WPA, a reflection of their largely uneventful work in preserving an already comfortable margin.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYM bats firstFinalPIT win %NYM win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 60.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jihwan Bae Single
Bot 3rd · off Tylor Megill
+14.7%
Austin Hedges Double
Bot 2nd · off Tylor Megill
+12.9%
Francisco Lindor Home Run
Top 3rd · off Rich Hill
+10.6%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Single
Bot 3rd · off Tylor Megill
+8.4%
Jack Suwinski Walk
Bot 3rd · off Tylor Megill
+5.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Jihwan Bae+17.7%+1.9 RE24
Ke'Bryan Hayes+12.5%+3.7 RE24
Austin Hedges+11.9%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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