New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Mets 7-5 on June 7, 2023, at Truist Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Atlanta's win probability moving from a pre-game 66% all the way to 100% by game's end. The Mets kept the contest competitive through the middle innings, but two home runs proved decisive in swinging the outcome decisively toward the home side. In the bottom of the fifth, Sean Murphy connected off Max Scherzer for a home run that shifted win probability by plus 20.6 points, neutralizing the momentum Tommy Pham had generated for New York moments earlier when his home run off Charlie Morton in the top of the fifth had swung probability by plus 19.8 points in the Mets' favor. Ronald Acuña Jr. extended Atlanta's advantage with a single off Scherzer in the bottom of the sixth, adding another plus 16.5 points to the Braves' win probability.

The game's single most decisive swing came in the bottom of the eighth, when Michael Harris II launched a home run off Adam Ottavino that added plus 32.1 points to Atlanta's win probability and effectively closed the door on any Mets comeback. New York's final genuine threat dissipated in the top of the eighth when Daniel Vogelbach grounded into a double play off Nick Anderson, a sequence that cost the Mets 14.9 points of win probability. Harris II finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, accumulating plus 41.3% WPA and a plus 2.4 RE24 on the night. Pham led Mets position players with plus 17.3% WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Among pitchers, Nick Anderson paced all relievers with plus 10.6% WPA, followed by Dominic Leone at plus 8.9% and Collin McHugh at plus 6.7%, as Atlanta's bullpen held firm to complete the two-run victory. The final line showed Atlanta collecting 14 hits against New York's six, with the Mets committing one error to Atlanta's none.