New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Mets 6-4 on June 6, 2023, at Truist Park in a game that swung dramatically between the two clubs before Atlanta ultimately pulled away. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring the Braves at 65% and closed at 100% as Atlanta completed the comeback victory.

The Mets seized early control in the third inning, with Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso delivering back-to-back home runs off Bryce Elder that shifted the win probability by 20.1% and 18.4% respectively, pushing New York to a 4-0 lead and temporarily moving the game against the model's pre-game lean. That advantage held through the fifth, but the Braves methodically dismantled the Mets bullpen in the bottom of the sixth, when Orlando Arcia's single off Drew Smith added 16.5% in win probability, Marcell Ozuna followed with a double off Smith worth 15.5%, and Sean Murphy capped the rally with a double off Carlos Carrasco that swung the needle another 15.3%. The four-run sixth erased the deficit entirely and gave Atlanta a lead it would not relinquish, adding a final insurance run in the eighth to reach six.

Arcia and Ozuna each finished as the game's top offensive contributors, both posting a WPA of plus-19.1%, with Arcia generating a RE24 of plus-1.6 and Ozuna plus-0.9. Alonso led Mets position players at plus-16.2% WPA despite the team's loss. On the pitching side, Atlanta's bullpen closed the door efficiently, with A.J. Minter contributing plus-10.8% WPA, Jesse Chavez adding plus-8.5%, and Raisel Iglesias contributing plus-6.3% to preserve the win.