Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 on June 5, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, holding Milwaukee scoreless across nine innings while the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati win climbed from 46 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out.

The two decisive blows came in back-to-back innings against Brewers starter Julio Teheran. Stuart Fairchild connected for a home run in the bottom of the third, a swing that shifted win probability by 10.6 percent in Cincinnati's favor, though Luke Maile's subsequent groundout into a double play clawed 6.7 percent of that swing back for Milwaukee. Teheran was touched again in the fourth when Tyler Stephenson followed with another solo home run, adding another 10.9 percent to Cincinnati's win-probability ledger and accounting for all the offense either side would produce. Milwaukee's best opportunity to respond came in the top of the eighth against Lucas Sims, when Owen Miller singled to push the Brewers' chances up 7.1 percent, but William Contreras immediately grounded into a double play that erased both the runner and 8.9 percent of Milwaukee's remaining probability.

Among individual performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Stephenson led all batters at plus 8.7 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.6, with Fairchild close behind at plus 8.3 percent and plus 0.7 RE24. The most dominant performance of the night, however, belonged to Andrew Abbott on the mound, whose outing generated plus 30.5 percent WPA, the highest mark of any player on either side and the clear engine behind Cincinnati's shutout victory.