Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Diego Padres 7-1 at Petco Park on June 4, 2023, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Padres win from 55 percent before first pitch to zero percent by the final out. Chicago seized control early, scoring once in the first inning before breaking the game open with a four-run second. The decisive damage came off Padres pitching in those opening frames, and San Diego never found an answer against Marcus Stroman, who finished as the game's most valuable pitcher by a wide margin, generating +22.7 percent in win probability added.
The pivotal sequence unfolded across the first three innings. In the bottom of the first, Manny Machado's strikeout against Stroman cost the Padres 4.2 percent in win probability, a sign of early offensive stagnation for the home side. The Cubs then went to work in the top of the second, where Seiya Suzuki's lineout off Drew Carlton carried a +10.4 percent win-probability swing in Chicago's favor, indicating it came within a high-leverage situation that the Cubs ultimately converted. Yan Gomes added a home run off Ryan Weathers in the same frame, worth +4.6 percent. When Austin Nola flied out against Stroman to end the bottom of the second, it erased another 14.4 percent from San Diego's chances. Miguel Amaya then delivered a home run off Carlton in the third, a swing that added 6.5 percent to Chicago's probability and pushed the Padres into an effectively insurmountable deficit.
Among Chicago's individual contributors, Suzuki led position players with a +10.3 percent WPA, while Amaya posted the game's best RE24 among batters at +3.0, reflecting his run-environment impact beyond just the home run. Gomes added +5.1 percent WPA and a +1.0 RE24. The Cubs collected 11 hits against a Padres staff that surrendered the game's margin almost entirely before the fourth inning, and Stroman's +22.7 percent WPA underscored how thoroughly he shut down San Diego's lineup after the early offensive burst gave him room to work.