MLB Recap · June 3, 2023

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

STL3
Final
PIT4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL010000020362
PIT00001300-480

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at PNC Park on June 3, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at 64 percent in favor of the home side and closing at 100 percent. The game turned decisively in the sixth inning, when Connor Joe delivered a double off Jordan Montgomery that swung win probability by plus-23.2 percent, the single largest play of the contest. Ke'Bryan Hayes had already provided Pittsburgh's first lead with a solo home run off Montgomery in the fifth, a swing worth plus-13.6 percent, and Carlos Santana added a run-producing single off Jordan Hicks later in the sixth for a plus-9.6 percent move. That three-run sixth frame proved to be the decisive rally, putting Pittsburgh ahead by a margin St. Louis could not fully overcome.

The Cardinals mounted a partial answer in the eighth inning when Nolan Gorman connected for a home run off Colin Holderman, a plus-18.1 percent swing that trimmed the deficit and briefly tightened the game. Gorman finished as the Cardinals' most impactful offensive contributor, posting plus-10.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2. Connor Joe led all position players with plus-14.3 percent WPA, while Jordan Walker added plus-7.6 percent for St. Louis despite a RE24 of minus-0.5. On the other side of the ball, Hayes had hurt Pittsburgh's own chances earlier with a sixth-inning grounded into double play that cost minus-10.2 percent, though he more than offset that damage with his home run.

Pittsburgh's bullpen secured the win, with David Bednar leading all pitchers at plus-15.2 percent WPA, followed closely by Dauri Moreta at plus-14.6 percent and Angel Perdomo at plus-12.4 percent. The Cardinals finished with two errors against none for Pittsburgh, a disparity that contributed to a clean defensive performance from the Pirates. Montgomery absorbed the bulk of Pittsburgh's offensive damage while working through the sixth, and the Cardinals' late push fell one run short as the Pirates held on for the 4-3 final.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalPIT win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 63.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Connor Joe Double
Bot 6th · off Jordan Montgomery
+23.2%
Nolan Gorman Home Run
Top 8th · off Colin Holderman
+18.1%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Home Run
Bot 5th · off Jordan Montgomery
+13.6%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Grounded Into DP
Bot 2nd · off Jordan Montgomery
-10.2%
Carlos Santana Single
Bot 6th · off Jordan Hicks
+9.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Connor Joe+14.3%+1.0 RE24
Nolan Gorman+10.0%+1.2 RE24
Jordan Walker+7.6%-0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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