Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 10-8 on June 3, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 45 percent chance of a home win and closing at zero. Milwaukee built its lead through an aggressive early offensive approach, plating three runs in the second inning and five more in the third, the latter fueled by a Blake Perkins home run off Graham Ashcraft that swung win probability 8.8 percent in Milwaukee's favor. Cincinnati clawed back with three runs in the sixth and two more in the ninth, but the Brewers' advantage held firm through the middle innings, aided in part by Nick Senzel grounding into a double play in the seventh off Bryse Wilson, a sequence that shifted the run expectancy picture 7.2 percent against the Reds.

The ninth inning condensed the game's remaining drama into a handful of pitches from Devin Williams. TJ Hopkins drew a walk that moved the needle 12.9 percent toward Cincinnati, and Will Benson followed with another walk worth 12.4 percent, suddenly making the Reds' deficit feel bridgeable with the bases occupied. However, Kevin Newman's strikeout to end the game swung win probability 15.2 percent back toward Milwaukee, the single most consequential plate appearance of the contest, and sealed the final out.

By WPA, Hopkins and Benson each finished among the top contributors despite appearing only in that final frame, credited with 12.9 and 12.0 percent respectively, while Perkins led all batters with a combined WPA of 12.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.9 on the strength of his third-inning home run. On the mound, Colin Rea led Milwaukee's staff with a WPA of plus-6.6 percent, followed by Bryse Wilson at plus-4.9 percent, as the two combined to keep Cincinnati's lineup largely in check through the game's middle stretch.